Climatic suitability for infectious disease transmission

Description

Climatic conditions across Europe are becoming more suitable for emergence and transmission of climate‑sensitive infectious diseases. Malaria is a mosquito-borne disease caused by Plasmodium parasites and spread to humans via mosquitos. The disease was endemic in Europe until the 1970s, when it got eliminated. An increasing number of malaria cases is being registered in Europe, largely attributable to international travel. Together with the widespread presence of the malaria vector (Anopheles mosquitoes) and the increasing climatic suitability for this vector (increased rainfall and higher temperatures) in Europe, malaria may re‑emerge in the region.

Caveats

This indicator reflects the state of conditions that would potentially allow malaria transmission to occur, had there not been public health efforts to control it. In this regard, this is indicator should be interpreted in the context of the current efforts that are allowing Europe to keep malaria from returning to the continent.

Reference information

Websites:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(22)00197-9/fulltext

Source:

Publication:

van Daalen, K. R., et al., 2022, ‘The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future’, The Lancet Public Health 7(11), pp. E942-E965. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00197-9.

Data sources:

Climatic data: ECMWF ERA5 Land Reanalysis data, retrieved from the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store
Land cover data: EEA CORINE land cover dataset
Altitude data: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) gridded elevation dataset

Additional reading:

Colón-González, F. J., et al., 2021, Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study, The Lancet Planetary Health 5(7), e404-e414. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7
Murray, K. A., et al., 2020, Tracking infectious diseases in a warming world, BMJ 371, m3086. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3086
Boualam, M. A., 2021, Malaria in Europe: a historical perspective, Frontiers in Medicine 8, 691095. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.691095
Fischer, L., et al., 2020, Rising temperature and its impact on receptivity to malaria transmission in Europe: A systematic review, Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease 36, 101815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101815
Grover-Kopec, E. K., et al., 2006, Web-based climate information resources for malaria control in Africa, Malaria journal 5(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-5-38