Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study

This study assessed the risk of weather-related hazards to the European population till 2100.

As a first step the annual number of deaths in 30 year intervals relative to the reference period (1981-2010) up to the year 2100 (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) was assessed by combining disaster records with high resolution hazard and demographic projections in a prognostic modelling framework. The hazards with the greatest impact (namely: heatwaves, cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms) were assessed and the spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business as usual green house gas emission scenario was evaluated.

The study concluded that weather-related disasters could affect about two-thirds of the European population annually by the year 2100 (351 million people exposed per year [uncertainty range 126 million to 523 million] during the period 2071–100) compared with 5% during the reference period (1981–2010; 25 million people exposed per year).